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Michaels ,
Patrick J. 		Research Interests

Research Professor and AASC-designated State Climatologist at the University of Virginia; Ph.D., University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1979.

Ecological and mesoscale climatology; climatic change.

I051 Clark Hall
434-924-0549
pjm8x@virginia.edu

The core issue over the next ten years will not be "How much will the climate warm?" but, rather, "Why did it warm so little?" My research also leads me to believe that the next decade will see the emergence of a paradigm of "robust earth," as opposed to the fashionable "fragility" concept. The papers listed below provide some evidence for these observations. It is entirely possible that human influence on the atmosphere is not necessarily deleterious and that it is simply another component of the dynamic planet. Tomorrow's scientific and science-policy leaders will have to recognize this verity in our attempts to maintain a productive and diverse planet.


Selected Recent Publications

Hux, J.D., P.C. Knappenberger, P.J. Michaels, and P.J. Stenger. 2001. Development of a discriminant analysis mixed precipitation (DAMP) forecast model for mid-Atlantic winter storms. Weather and Forecasting 16:248-259.

Knappenberger, P.C., P.J. Michaels and R.E. Davis. 2001. The Nature of Observed Temperature Changes Across the United States During the 20th Century. Climate Research 17:45-53.

Michaels, P.J., and R.C. Balling, Jr. 2000. The Satanic Gases. Cato Books, Washington DC. 234 pp.

Michaels, P.J. and P.C. Knappenberger. 2000. Natural signals in the MSU lower tropospheric temperature record. Geophysical Research Letters 27:2905-2908.

Michaels, P.J., P.C. Knappenberger, R.C. Balling, Jr., and R.E. Davis. 2000. Observed warming in cold anticyclones. Climate Research 14:1-6.

Michaels, P.J., P.C. Knappenberger, and R.E. Davis. 2000. The way of warming. Regulation 33:10-16.

Davis, R.E., P.J. Michaels, and B.P. Hayden. 2000. Overview of Extratropical Cyclones. Pages 401-426 in R. Pielke, Jr. and R. Pielke, Sr., eds., Storms, Volume I. Routledge, New York, New York.

Balling, R., M.C. MacCracken, P.J. Michaels, and A. Robock. 2000. Assessment of uncertainties of predicted global change modelling. Technology 7S:231-257.

Hansen, J.E. and P.J. Michaels. 2000. AARST Science Policy Forum, New York. Social Epistemology 14:133-186.

Michaels, P.J., and R.C. Balling, Jr. 1999. Global warming: The political science of exaggeration. Prometheus 1, 63-70.

Environmental Sciences Department
291 McCormick Rd
Charlottesville, Virginia
(434) 924-7761
Maintained by wsc4j@virginia.edu and hee2b@virginia.edu.